Forecast accountability
Forecasts without pretending.
Models are allowed to be wrong. DEAL is not allowed to forget what they predicted, what information they had, or how the prediction performed afterward.
Model output ≠ fact Immutable run SHA-256 Permanent error history
Published runs0
Model versions0
Forecast stateAUDITABLE
Evidence boundaryVISIBLE
Published model runs
The forecast ledger.
Each forecast preserves the model version, knowledge cutoff, target time, assumptions, source binding, point estimate and optional interval before any outcome is known.
No model output has been published yet. DEAL will not fabricate demonstration forecasts just to make this page look busy.